Charles Oliveira picks Carlos Prates to beat Islam Makhachev
Submitted by Makhachev in 2022, the Brazilian says Ian Garry showed the blueprint and Prates has a real chance to take the welterweight title
Charles Oliveira believes Carlos Prates can take the UFC welterweight title from Islam Makhachev. In an interview with Marcelo Alonso of Sherdog, published Friday, the Brazilian said Ian Garry, who lost to Makhachev in August, showed his countryman how to do it.
His opinion carries extra weight. Oliveira holds the UFC record for submission wins, and even so, Makhachev submitted him when they fought for the lightweight title in 2022.
What Oliveira said about Prates and Garry
“I think Garry showed Prates the blueprint,” Oliveira said. “I usually say these matchups will be close, but this time, I believe Prates has a real chance to win.”
In his view, the key is the kicks. “If he lands those kicks to the ribs and calves, just like Garry did, he could catch the champion off guard,” Oliveira said. He also pointed out that Prates has knockout power and is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt.
Makhachev beat Garry by unanimous decision at UFC 330 on Aug. 15 in Philadelphia, in his first welterweight title defense. Garry lost, but he went the full five rounds and had good moments on the feet, especially with his kicks.
The arm-triangle choke Makhachev used on Oliveira
Oliveira knows Makhachev firsthand. In October 2022, at UFC 280 in Abu Dhabi, they fought for the vacant lightweight title, and Makhachev won with an arm-triangle choke in the second round.
A submission loss for the UFC’s most prolific finisher shows what makes Makhachev so hard to beat. A product of sambo, he takes opponents down, controls them and finds the finish even against grappling specialists.
After Oliveira, he also submitted Dustin Poirier in 2024 and Renato Moicano in 2025, both with chokes. That is why the pick stands out: Oliveira himself says the way to beat Makhachev is on the feet, away from the mat.
Prates’ numbers ahead of a title shot
Prates is 24-7 and ranked No. 2 at welterweight. All seven of his UFC wins have come by knockout or TKO.
His only UFC loss came against Garry, by unanimous decision, in April 2025 in Kansas City. Since then, he has knocked out Geoff Neal, Leon Edwards and Jack Della Maddalena.
Makhachev, 29-1, is on a 17-fight UFC winning streak. The Prates fight is not official, but, as VF Comunica reported this week, the UFC is working to book it for UFC 336 on Jan. 30 in Toronto.
Oliveira, meanwhile, has his own fight to worry about. He defends the BMF title against Diego Lopes on Dec. 12 at UFC 335 in Las Vegas and wants another shot at the lightweight belt.
Do you agree with Oliveira? Are Prates’ kicks enough to take the belt from Makhachev, or will the champion drag the fight to the mat? Tell us in the comments.
Read more:
- Carlos Prates vs. Makhachev targeted for UFC 336 in Toronto
- Charles Oliveira eyes title shot, wants answers from Gaethje
- What is sambo and how is it different from Jiu-Jitsu
